In short, in the acceleration experiment, just gel production rate and viscosity of gel, porosity of the matrix determines the expansion strain of concrete. This is not relevant to the real ASR expansion in which Ca ion is strongly reacted with silica-gel. We can evaluate the risk of ASR for the specific aggregate, but not estimate the expansion strain.

W. Wang, I. Maruyama, T. Noguchi, Impact of exposure conditions on alkali-silica reaction in alkali-activated material systems, Cem. Concr. Compos. (2024) 105695. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cemconcomp.2024.105695.